Other than a small October stumble, that trend of slow, steady growth has continued. In August, the current stock market rally became the fourth-longest since the Great Recession without a 20 percent correction. Behravesh writes in an e-mailed report.Īll told, he says, the US will continue to outperform the economies of other developed nations in 2015. Such actions “will not only support growth, but could also provide the basis for some upside surprises,” Mr. Solid growth in the US will get a helping hand from a slight improvement in the eurozone and monetary stimulus from central banks, including the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), says Nariman Behravesh, an economist with IHS Global Insight. Gas prices are falling, something that analysts expect to continue well into the first half of next year. Job growth has been strong, and wages are finally showing signs of life. We’re not seeing it now because that first quarter was so bad it was hiding the growth of the rest of the year.” If we don’t get a polar vortex this year, we will start to see the trend rate pick up to 3 percent or a little above. “Four of the last five quarters GDP has been 3.5 percent or higher. Next year? “No polar vortex!” says David Berson, an economist with Nationwide, in a phone interview. 2014 could have been the year growth in gross domestic product finally hit 3 percent again, except for one thing: A spate of uncommonly cold winter weather brought the consumer economy to a near screeching halt during the early weeks of the year. To that end, here are the best guesses from the experts on what the economy will do next year:Įver since the Great Recession, economic growth has been sluggish, stuck in the mid-2 percent range or worse. Will the momentum continue in 2015? In most areas, economists are optimistic that it will. In general, the US economy is ending the year on a high note: the job market is humming along, the stock market continues to hit new highs, and formerly dull spots in the recovery, including wages and the housing market, are finally showing signs of life. With gas prices nearing $2 per gallon in multiple states, consumers are spending less at the pump, giving them more wiggle room to spend in other areas.
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A polar vortex hampered activity early in the year, but a free fall in gas prices has done the opposite to close it out. The US economy veered unpredictably in 2014.
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